Statistical Overview on Economy and Society
By Yuri Shokamanov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Deputy Chairman of Kazakhstan’s Statistics Agency
Gross Domestic Product
Continuous rapid development took place in the economy during the first six months of 2007. The volume of gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 10.2% compared with the same period of 2006. If the growth rate reaches the figure of 10.6% by the end of the current year (as happened in 2006), or at least 10.4%, Kazakhstan will have the chance to double its GDP as early as 2007, i.e. three years ahead of the plan for the year of 2010. It is noteworthy that GDP grew by 81.1% by the end of 2006 compared to 2000 (Chart 1).
Gross value added (GVA) of goods accounted for 41.2% of GDP; the indicator grew by 11.3% in real terms compared with the first six months of 2006. Respectively, GVA of services rose by 12.1% to 56.5%.
As a whole, if financial intermediation services which are estimated indirectly are excluded, GVA accounted for 93% of GDP, showing a growth by 9% in real terms. Net taxes on goods increased by 13.6% and amounted to 7% of GDP.
The highest GVA growth rate was reported from the financial sector (62.7%), building (36.8%) and telecommunications (31.7%), with the lowest rates reported from healthcare (2.5%), state administration (3.3%), education and agriculture (3.8% each).
Industry accounted for 31.3% of the entire GDP during the first six months. In general, industrial production grew by 6.8%; however, during May and June, the growth rate was below the growth rate of the same months of 2006. i.e. the indicator did not fall below 9% during the first four months; however it merely reached 2.3% and 1.7% during May and June respectively. This can be largely explained by the abrupt increase in production during these months in 2006 (Chart 2).
Similar to last year, the processing industry (which accounts for 37.7% of overall industrial production) showed a higher growth rate compared to the mining industry (55.7%): 6.7% and 3.6% respectively over six months (compared with 8.9% and 5.3% in 2006). The production and distribution of electricity, gas and water grew by 6.3% (compared to 5.4%).
The metallurgical industry – which accounts for 43.2% of processing industry – grew by 6.3%. Ferrous metallurgy production rose by 9.6% due to increased production of pipes, hollow structural sections, flat sections, steel, cast iron, and ferrous alloys. Non-ferrous metallurgy grew only by 2.8% due to increased refined copper production, which make up almost 50% of non-ferrous industry. Production of native gold, and refined gold and silver reduced.
Food production (19% of processing industry) rose by 5.7%. The growth was mainly due to increased production of sausage goods, flour, pasta, sweets and drinks.
Machine building was the third largest sector of the processing industry and accounted for 9.3% of its volume. From January to June 2007, the machine building production increased by 12.8% compared to the first six months of 2006.
Relatively high growth rates were reported from industries producing other non-metallic mineral goods (20.5%), coke, oil products and nuclear materials (17.2%), chemical industry (34%), rubber and plastic goods (18.5%), woodworking (9%), and leather, leather goods and footwear (22.1%). These industries accounted for 6.8%, 6.7%, 2.6%, 1.6%, 0.3% and 0.1% of the processing sector.
Textile and sewing industries showed a reduction by 18.9% (1% of the processing sector). Production of cotton fibre almost stopped because of the lack of raw material. Production of carpets and cotton fabrics reduced due to overstocking and reduced demand.
Like in 2006, agriculture, including hunting, forestry, fishing and fish farming, accounted for a very small share of only 2.2% of GDP as per the results of the fist six months of 2007. However, agriculture plays an important role in the social sector and ensures food security: the sector employs 31.6% of all economically active people of Kazakhstan (according to the data provided by a household survey during the first quarter of 2007), and the market of many foods is formed mainly by domestic producers.
Agricultural production increased by 3.8%. Overall area under crops was extended by 2.9%, with area under pulses extended by 4%. According to the Agriculture Ministry, grain yield reached 1,610 kg per hectare as at 2 August 2007, compared to 1,280 kg last year.
The number of all livestock and poultry increased as at 1 July 2007. Meat production grew by 4.1%, milk by 3.3%, and eggs by 4.9% during the first six months, compared to the same period of last year.
From January to June 2007, domestic producers supplied 99.8% of flour and 96.9% of meat to the domestic market. Over one half of flour was exported (54.9%); meat was only distributed on the domestic market. As for dairy products, pasta, cereals, alcohol and soft drinks, and tobacco products: Kazakhstan’s producers supplied from 78% to 95%.
The building industry was developing quickly. During the first six months, the volume of construction work was 30.6% above the same period of 2006. Construction of buildings, which increased 1.7 times, amounted to half of overall construction work (49.1%). The major part of construction work (78%) was implemented by private companies. Foreign companies were contracted for 21.4% of work and state companies were contracted for 0.6%.
Some 213.1 billion tenge or 17.3% of overall capital investments were directed into the construction of houses. This is 1.6 times the respective figure of 2006. Approximately 3,749,300 square meters of houses were commissioned, which is 57.5% above the respective period of 2006.
The overall cargo turnover rose by 5.3% compared to the period from January to June 2006; passenger turnover increased by 5.7%.
Railway cargo turnover reached 94.98 billion tonne-kilometres (the number grew by 6.2%), motor transport 25,397,900,000 tonne-kilometres (8.9%), pipelines 43.422 billion tonne-kilometres (1.6%), river transport 20,749,600,000 tonne-kilometres (doubled), and air transport 35,240,900 tonne-kilometres (11.5%).
Overall passenger turnover amounted to 55,088,600,000 passenger-kilometres. The most impressive growth of 37.9% and 26% was reported from air and railway transport respectively. Services provided by taxi increased by 4.5% and buses by 1%. However, passenger turnover by trolleybuses and trams reduced by 13.5% and 2.4%.
During the first six months of 2007, services provided by telecommunication companies amounted to 158.8 billion tenge, and services to population made up 64.5 billion tenge: respectively, 31.5% and 31.1% up from the same period of last year in comparable prices. Boosted by 42.6%, cellular services acquired the major share (50.2%) in telecommunications revenue structure.
In constant prices, retail sales increased by 11.1% to 832.2 billion tenge, compared to the respective period of 2006. More than three quarters (75.5%) were formed by trading organisations and entrepreneurs, who sell mainly through stationary trading networks. The share of bazaar turnover reduced from 32.5% to 24.5%.
According to statistics provided by customs services, foreign trade skyrocketed to $36.6bn, 34.2% up from the same period of previous year. Exports reached $21.8bn (a growth by 25.8%), and imports $14.8bn (48.8%).
Inflation reduced by 0.6 percentage points to 8.1% compared to the respective period of 2006. Inflation exceeded 8% in January and June (Chart 3).
Average Monthly Salary
The indicator grew by 28.9% (or 19.2% in real terms) to 48,855 tenge from January to June 2007, compared to 2006.
During the first six months of 2007, the average employment rate exceeded the indicator of 2006 by 2.8%, and amounted to 7,566,600 people. The number of wage labourers increased by 3.8% and approached to 4,924,800 people. The number of unemployed dropped by 3.9% to 612,900 people. The average unemployment rate was 7.5% during the six months (8% in 2006).
As at 1 July 2007, the population increased by 88,000 to 15,484,800 people thanks to the natural growth of the population (by 76,500), and a surplus of external migration (by 11,500). The number of newborn babies grew by 11.1% to 159,100; deaths grew by 3.5% to 82,600. The crude birth rate per 1,000 people rose to 20.5 (18.6 in 2006); crude mortality rate to 10.4 (10.3).
The largest number of immigrants arrived from Uzbekistan, Russia and China: respectively, 49.5%, 18.9% and 11.4% of overall number of immigrants (28,100 people). Kazakhstan’s people emigrate mainly to Russia and Germany: 86.5% and 5.9% of the total number of emigrants (16,700 people) respectively.
Development Institutions. Results and Plans of Kazyna Kayrat Kelimbetov
Political System: Reforms, Election, Cadres Daniyar Ashimbayev
Oil Pan: Porridge without Kashagan Editorial
Fuel and Energy Sector. Reserves, Output and Investment Elvira Jantureyeva
Kazakhstan and China: Ahead of Forecasts Zhang Xiyun
Striving for Harmony through Responsibility Arman Abdykalykov
Energy and Geopolitics. China and Central Asia Mehmet Ogutcu, Xin Ma
It is High Time We Had a Fleet in the Caspian Sea Sergey Smirnov
Internet in Kazakhstan. Glitter and Poverty of the .kz Zone Aleksandr Vasiliyev
American Appraisal. 111 years of appraisal experience Erlan Eszhanov
Corporate Finance: Bonds Yerbolat Yeleshev
Statistical Overview on Economy and Society Yuri Shokamanov